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China economy growing while landing softly
www.chinanews.cn 2005-07-18 14:16:23
Chinanews, Beijing, July 18 (By Wang Yongzhi) - Although the second
quarter confidence index of Chinese economists was at its lowest since
the first quarter of 2004, the latest survey shows that China's
macroeconomy can be expected to maintain relatively fast growth while at
the same time land softly. According to the predictions of more than 80%
of economists, this year's GDP will grow between 8% and 9%.
Ye Zhicai and Pan Jiancheng with the China Economic Monitoring and
Analysis Center (CEMAC) of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
explained to reporters that the survey of the confidence index of Chinese
economists conducted this June by the Center shows that this index is 5.2
for the second quarter, declining by 0.51 from the first quarter and is
at its lowest since the first quarter of 2004, but still at a level
indicating satisfaction with the economic situation.
The sixty specialists who are learned about the macroeconomy generally
feel that China's exports and investment growth rates will decline as
expected; inflation will decelerate; FDI tends to also decline; property
values indicate a downtrend; economic "temperature" obviously trending
downwards; the pressure on the RMB to appreciate has been reduced.
Regarding the trends in the second half of the year, 14% of these
economists believe that over the next six months the economic situation
will "change for the better", 11 percentage points lower than the first
quarter; 64% believe that the situation will "remain unchanged", 7
percentage points lower than first quarter's; 22% believe the situation
will "worsen", 18 percentage points higher than the first quarter. The
projected business climate index is 4.66, dropping 1.2 from the first
quarter's figure, showing that economists worrying about the economy
trending downward.
Regarding property prices that are widely watched, experts predict
stability with a downward bias, quite different from the first quarter
when more than half the economists thought that property values would
rise in the next six months. This survey shows that 21% believe that
prices will "rise", 31 percentage points lower than the first quarter's;
43% believe that prices will "decline" and 36% believe that prices will
"hold steady".
Under the circumstance of widespread prediction of declining economic
growth, the majority of economists believe that China's economy will not
show too much volatility and there is a high likelihood of it maintaining
a relatively high growth while landing softly.
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